Full Report: https://www.undp.org/content/dam/ethiopia/docs/Ethiopia%20CRGE.pdf
Addis Ababa, November 2011
The Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) Strategy contains Ethiopia’s vision and strategy to achieve a middle income country status by 2025 while developing a green economy. The Strategy was launched at the COP 17 in Durban in 2011 where it was positively received by the UK and Norwegian Government who pledged to support the implementation of the CRGE Strategy with USD 75 million per year (USD 15 million from the UK Government and USD 60 million from the Norwegian Government). The total expected cost of implementing the Strategy is around USD 150 billion over the next 20 years.
The CRGE Strategy is made up of two main components: climate resilience and green economy. The different elements and focus areas of the green economy component have been identified and planning is underway, whilst the climate resilient component is still being developed. Both components complement each other and are mutually reinforcing.
The CRGE Strategy provides key
targets for reducing emissions and increasing climate resilience in 8 key
sectors. These are: Energy Supply, Buildings and Cities, REDD+, Soil based
emissions, Livestock, Transport, Industry and Health. In order to develop the
green economy the Strategy focuses on four pillars:
1) adoption of agricultural and land use efficiency measures,
2) increased greenhouse gas sequestration in forestry, including protecting and
re-establishing forests for their economic and ecosystem services, including
carbon stocks;
3) deployment of renewable and clean power generation; and
4) use of appropriate advanced technologies in industry, transport and
buildings.
In order to fast-track implementation, four initiatives have been selected. These are:
i) exploiting Ethiopia’s vast hydro-power potential;
ii) large-scale promotion of advanced rural cooking technologies;
iii) efficiency improvements to the livestock value chain; and
iv) REDD+ [Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation].
According to the CRGE Report, “These initiatives have the best chances of promoting growth immediately, capturing large abatement potentials, and attracting climate finance for their implementation. To ensure a comprehensive programme, initiatives from all other sectors will also be developed into concrete proposals.”
The CRGE Strategy complements the current Growth Transformation Plan (GTP), which aims to set Ethiopia on a path to become a middle income country by 2025 by doubling the GDP per capita from USD 351 to USD 698 by 2015. The CRGE Strategy aims to increase GDP per capita to USD 1000 by 2025. Furthermore, by implementing a number of green initiatives it aims to ensure that Ethiopia does not exceed its current greenhouse gas emission levels (150 mega tonne CO2 e), which would involve reducing emission levels of up to 64% compared to business as usual in 2030.
Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy
Green economy strategy
Foreword
Ethiopia is experiencing the effects of climate change. Besides the direct effects such as an increase in average temperature or a change in rainfall patterns, climate change also presents the necessity and opportunity to switch to a new, sustainable development model. The Government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia has therefore initiated the Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) initiative to protect the country from the adverse effects of climate change and to build a green economy that will help realise its ambition of reaching middle income status before 2025.
Since February 2011, the CRGE initiative, under the leadership of the Prime Minister’s Office, the Environmental Protection Authority, and the Ethiopian Development Research Institute, has been developing a strategy to build a green economy. Seven sectoral teams involving more than 50 experts from more than 20 leading government institutions have been driving the initiative. The objective is to identify green economy opportunities that could help Ethiopia reach its ambitious growth targets while keeping greenhouse gas emissions low. The government intends to attract development partners to help implement this new and sustainable growth model.
This report summarises the findings of the CRGE initiative, and particularly focuses on outlining the plan to develop a green economy. The document does not cover climate resilience, which will be added over the coming months. This strategy has been extensively discussed during the previous two months of regional and sectoral consultations to ensure national alignment on priorities, confirm initial findings, create awareness, and join forces. This document reflects the work of the CRGE initiative as well as the outcome of the consultation process.
Addis Ababa, November 2011
Selected excerpts from the report:
Agriculture: Improving crop and livestock production practices for higher food security and farmer income while reducing emissions
Well into the foreseeable future, agriculture will remain the core sector of the economy and provide employment for the vast majority of. Sustained high growth rates of the agricultural sector – the GTP projects more than 8% over the next five years – are needed not only to increase household income of most families, but also to provide food security for a growing population and support the growth of direct exports of agricultural products and/or the establishment of more light manufacturing, which often requires agricultural input.
The traditional economic development path could deliver the required growth, but at the cost of significant agriculture land expansion (inducing pursuing and accelerating deforestation), soil erosion, and higher emissions as well as at the risk of reaching the limits to further development, e.g., by exceeding the carrying capacity
Building a green economy will require an increase the productivity of farmland and livestock rather than increasing the land area cultivated or cattle headcount. In order to offer a viable alternative to the conventional development path without foregoing growth in the short term and significant advantages thereafter, a set of initiatives has been identified that can provide the required increase in agricultural productivity and resource efficiency.
The CRGE initiative has prioritised the following initiatives to limit the soil-based emissions from agriculture and limit the pressure on forests from the expansion of land under cultivation:
- Intensify agriculture through usage of improved inputs and better residue management resulting in a decreased requirement for additional agricultural land that would primarily be taken from forests,
- Create new agricultural land in degraded areas through small-, medium-, and large-scale irrigation to reduce the pressure on forests if expansion of the cultivated area becomes necessary,
- Introduce lower-emission agricultural techniques, ranging from the use of carbon- and nitrogen-efficient crop cultivars to the promotion of organic fertilizers.
These measures would reduce emissions from already cultivated areas.
To increase the productivity and resource efficiency of the Livestock sector, the following initiatives have been prioritised:
- Increase animal value chain efficiency to improve productivity, i.e., output per head of cattle via higher production per animal and an increased off-take rate, led by better health and marketing,
- Support consumption of lower-emitting sources of protein, e.g., poultry. An increase of the share of meat consumption from poultry to up to 30% appears realistic and will help to reduce emissions from domestic animals,
- Mechanise draft power, i.e., introduce mechanical equipment for ploughing/tillage that could substitute around 50% of animal draft power, which – despite burning fuels – results in a net reduction of GHG emissions.
- Manage rangeland to increase its carbon content and improve the productivity of the land.
These initiatives offer the combined benefit of supporting economic growth, increasing farmers’/pastoralists’ income and limiting emissions and should be integrated into the plan of activities for implementing the transformation plan under development by the Ministry of Agriculture.
Forestry: Protecting and re-establishing forests for their economic and ecosystem services, including as carbon stocks
Deforestation and forest degradation must be reversed to support the continued provision of economic and ecosystem services and growth in GDP. Fuelwood accounts for more than 80% of households’ energy supply today – particularly in rural areas. Furthermore, forests contribute an estimated 4% to GDP through the production of honey, forest coffee, and timber. They also provide significant and precious eco-system services: they protect soil and water resources by controlling the discharge of water to streams and rivers, preserve biodiversity, function as a carbon sink, clean the air to create important health benefits, and boost land fertility.
Despite their economic and environmental value, Ethiopian forests are under threat. The growing population requires more fuelwood and more agricultural production, in turn creating needs for new farmland – both of which accelerate deforestation and forest degradation. Projections indicate that unless action is taken to change the traditional development path, an area of 9 million ha might be deforested between 2010 and 2030. Over the same period, annual fuelwood consumption will rise by 65% – leading to forest degradation of more than 22 million tonnes of woody biomass.
Besides the agricultural initiatives to reduce the pressure on forests (see above), the CRGE initiative has prioritised two strategies that could help to develop sustainable forestry and reduce fuelwood demand:
– Reduce demand for fuelwood via the dissemination and usage of fuel-efficient stoves and/or alternative-fuel cooking and baking techniques (such as electric, LPG, or biogas stoves) leading to reduced forest degradation,
– Increase afforestation, reforestation, and forest management to increase carbon sequestration in forests and woodlands. These initiatives would result in an increased storage of carbon in Ethiopia’s forests, provide a basis for sustainable forestry, and even allow the forestry sector to yield negative emissions, i.e., store more carbon in growing forests than are emitted from deforestation and forest degradation.
– Promoting area closure via rehabilitation of degraded pastureland and farmland, leading to enhanced soil fertility and thereby ensuring additional carbon sequestration (above and below ground).
Two sectors – agriculture and forestry – should receive particular attention: they contribute around 45% and 25% respectively to projected GHG emission levels under business-as-usual assumptions and together account for around 80% of the total abatement potential (Figure 8).
- Forestry in 5 million ha of forest and 2 million ha of woodland alone represents around 50% of the total domestic abatement potential (or 130 Mt CO2e) and, as a sector, can even yield ‘negative emissions’ via sequestration, i.e., storage of carbon in the form of wood, at a level that surpasses emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. The single most important lever is to reduce demand for fuelwood through fuelwood efficient stoves, offering a potential of almost 35 Mt CO2e reduction, while other advanced cooking and baking technologies (electric, biogas, and LPG stoves) offer an additional combined potential of more than 15 Mt CO2e. Capturing this abatement potential requires the switch of more than 20 million households to more efficient stoves. In addition, afforestation (2 million ha), reforestation (1 million ha), and forest management (2 million ha of forests and 2 million ha of woodlands) can help to increase sequestration by more than 40 Mt CO2e and hence even surpass any remaining emissions from the forestry sector.
Pressure from agriculture on forests can be reduced by agriculture intensification on existing land or unlocking degraded land thanks to irrigation, with the potential to lower deforestation and thus the associated emissions by nearly 40 Mt CO2e in 2030.
The agriculture sector has a total abatement potential for soil- and livestock-related emissions of 90 Mt CO2e, representing around 35% of the total domestic abatement potential of Soil. The introduction of lower-emitting techniques, such as conservation and nutrient and crop management, could reduce emissions by 40 Mt CO2e in 2030. The introduction and enhancement of these lower
emitting techniques will form a priority for the soil sector in the coming years and the initiative will target 75% of rural households by 2030.
Moreover, through agricultural intensification and capture of new agricultural land in arid areas through irrigation, techniques from crop production help to increase the abatement potential from saved forests. In fact, these initiatives increase the sequestration from forests by 38 MT CO2e in 2030.
Livestock. There is ample potential to increase the efficiency of the cattle value chain via higher productivity of cattle (for both meat and milk) and an increased off-take rate (decreasing the age at which livestock are sold).
Several initiatives would fall underneath this umbrella, including improving the market infrastructure, health facilities, and feeding for livestock.
This could reduce emissions by more than 15 Mt CO2e in 2030.
Furthermore, a partial shift towards lower-emitting sources of protein – e.g., poultry – could yield another emission reduction of nearly 20 Mt CO2e, assuming the share of chicken in the protein mix will change from 15 to 30%. Finally, the mechanisation of draft power, i.e., the introduction of mechanical equipment for ploughing/tillage, could help to substitute about 50% of animal draft power and lower emissions by more than 10 Mt CO2e in 2030, while the improvement of pastureland lowers emissions by 3 Mt CO2e in 2030.
GEARING UP: PERMANENT COMMITMENT, AN EMERGING INSTITUTIONAL SETUP, AND STAKEHOLDER MOBILISATION
To achieve the Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) vision, the government can draw on its demonstrated track record of commitment to developing a green economy.
Ethiopia has repeatedly demonstrated its commitment to developing a green economy.
Besides Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s leadership role in international climate negotiations, we have launched the CRGE initiative, which is led by the Prime Minister’s Office, the Environmental Protection Authority (EPA), the Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI), and six ministries.
These institutions and the relevant ministries have dedicated significant resources and have organised a robust and participatory process to develop the green economy initiative.
Seven sectoral sub-technical committees (STCs) (Figure, p.46 of the report) have been established to work on these plans and see them through to successful implementation.
Since February 2011, more than 50 experts from about 20 leading governmental institutions have dedicated time, effort, and resources to developing sectoral plans and an integrated federal plan. The results of this work have been discussed in the biweekly Technical Committee meetings that have been chaired and administered by the Environmental Protection Authority. The Ministerial Steering Committee – chaired by H.E. Ato Newai Gebre-Ab and composed of the State Ministers and senior officials from the participating institutions – represents the most senior body in the CRGE effort and has decided on the overall direction of the work as well as discussed and approved the sectoral and overall results.
As its first major deliverable, the CRGE initiative has conducted a comprehensive investigation of the current development path and options for building a green economy as outlined in this report. The government has thereby started a process that will be pursued and improved in the coming years.
In addition to the green economy initiative, which is oriented to GHG mitigation, the economy will be made climate resilient. As part of the CRGE initiative, the threats related to climate change have been identified and a cost effective adaptation programme has been developed.
At the federal level, ministries and other sectoral agencies will participate and encourage the participation of other entities in their respective sectors in the formulation and implementation of the components of the green economy. These ministries and other sectoral agencies are responsible for:
– Formulating proposals of green economy initiatives for financial support or carbon credit
– Coordinating the implementation of sectoral or sub-sectoral green economy initiatives
– Preparing and submitting monitoring reports
– Designing, establishing and staffing their respective environmental units.
National regional states – in collaboration with the relevant federal level institutions
– are responsible for implementing the majority of the initiatives outlined in the CRGE strategy. The coordination between regional and federal levels will be under the responsibility of the respective environmental agencies of the national regional states. This collaboration has proved efficient in numerous other undertakings.
A key design principle for the permanent institutional setup is to use existing institutions and responsibilities in order to minimize requirements for funding and organisational reform. The EPA plans to largely deploy people who are already involved in the CRGE initiative today. This shortens the time needed for recruiting and ensures the high quality and fit of the staff.
Stakeholder mobilisation
To kick-start implementation and build widespread awareness and support, the initiative has conducted and will continue to conduct extensive stakeholder consultation.
the STCs. Consultation was conducted under the co-responsibility of the STCs/ ministries and the EPA between July and September 2011 and primarily focused on governmental and public stakeholders.
– Sectoral consultation was organised and conducted by the STCs/ministries.
These events focused on the presentation, discussion, and improvement of the sectoral work on green economy initiatives. Consultation events focused on workshops involving experts from ministries and other public sector organisations as well as selected experts from academia.
In addition to this sectoral consultation, a national consultation was led and organised by the EPA and the EDRI. National consultation involved regional governments, standing committees of the parliament, and workshops with selected researchers.
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ACTION: CRGE HAS ALREADY FASTTRACKEDFOUR INITIATIVES FOR IMMEDIATE IMPLEMENTATION
Four initiatives have been fast-tracked for implementation: attracting financing to exploit Ethiopia’s vast hydropower potential, promoting advanced cooking technologies on a large scale, monetising reduced emissions from livestock, and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD). Each of these initiatives offers the chance to immediately promote growth, capture large abatement potential, and attract available climate finance for implementation. Moreover, they are important enablers for the country’s economic development, and their implementation is feasible and considered as a priority by the government.
The following subchapters outline each of these four initiatives – highlighting key findings from the detailed analyses and describing the tactical plan developed to translate them into investment-ready projects that attract finance and get implemented.
To ensure a comprehensive programme, initiatives from all other sectors will be developed into concrete proposals. These initiatives will be detailed over the coming months. The main criteria for selection as a priority initiative are the initiatives’ effect on reaching GTP targets, their abatement potential, and their ease of implementation.
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